[Brooke Kohlsdorf] Welcome to the table for the Friday, May 22nd, 2026 installment of Market Plus.

And joining us now is Sue Martin again.

Okay.

We ran out of time during the regular segment so we didn't get to hogs.

What do you think about that market right now?

[Sue Martin] Well, I think the hog market, it's been very frustrating in a way for hog producers because it can't seem to hold on to a rally.

It tries and then it fails and it tries and it fails.

But I think we're finally getting to the point now where the hog market is going to start to gain.

And June is usually a good month until about the week after Memorial Day or not Memorial Day, but Fourth of July.

And I think that, you know, we've got African swine fever running through.

It's up sharply across the European Union and in Spain.

And so, I think we're going to see a demand for U.S.

Pork, because as long as we're free of it, I think the world will come to us.

Pork is cheap.

And of course, beef is very high priced, very tight supply.

So, I think it's pork that they'll come to, not China for, for example, but the rest of the world, I think will see exports increase.

[Kohlsdorf] Okay.

Some hope then for that market.

Well, let's go to a couple of our social media questions.

So, this is Boyce in North Dakota.

He was wondering about July corn.

He says could July corn be putting in a double top?

[Martin] It appears like it has for 87.5.

Just a second.

I apologize.

[Kohlsdorf] I know, and you did so well during the regular segment of holding it in until the very end.

[Martin] Excuse me.

But basically, for 87.5 is a double top.

And we've got a third high of 485.

But that was made here a week ago.

And so, the market has to get something to fuel it to get the power to get through that.

Then if it happens we could see $5 plus corn.

[Kohlsdorf] Okay.

So, Marvin is wondering about he says, Sue wondering what you think the bond markets impact on the grains and the cattle market will be.

[Martin] I think the bond market is.

Yes.

It's looking at like it's trying to lift on the futures market, which would imply a little bit of lower prices for interest rates.

But I think it's merely a correction in the futures.

I think the bond market has been implying we're going to see interest rates go higher.

And when you look at consumer confidence you know it was the lowest again for three months.

You know consecutively.

But yet consumer demand for meats tends to be pretty good.

I think that interest rates are going to impact us as we go down the road on nearly everything.

Be it whether it's processing or it's manufacturing and also homes.

I think we're going to see higher interest rates, inflation pick up would be my guess.

[Kohlsdorf] Do you think that will come out eventually and impact farmers in like in the stages of bankruptcy or who are thinking about just quitting operating?

[Martin] We've been hearing a lot of talk like that.

And I think if it's a younger farmer, you know, it all comes down to it's hard to get into the industry.

And, and then be able to stay in it.

In times like this, and especially when prices are going higher.

But it depends on if they had their inputs bought for this past crop that are not past crop, but for the crop that's been planted, then they might be okay for this year, but it's next year when the costs really jump and we're encouraging our producers that work through our office and even on our radio commentaries that we do.

And in my website, we're encouraging producers if they see the opportunity to get a better price or a reduction in cost, because usually right after you're done planting, the supplier will, if he's got any on hand, he'll drop his costs.

And we're telling them, take advantage of it and get it done because we see very much higher prices next year, especially with crude leading the way.

[Kohlsdorf] All right, Gary in Wisconsin is asking how bad is the drought in central United States.

It kind of depends on where you are.

Right.

[Martin] Exactly.

If you're in the Eastern Corn Belt, it isn't there isn't hardly any drought.

Maybe a little bit of dryness showed up.

This week's drought monitor in northeastern Illinois.

But all in all, the eastern Corn Belt is in pretty good shape.

And then if you look at the western side, the further west you go, the drier it gets.

So, there's concern.

You look at Colorado and very dry, and you look at the Platte River and you look at Nebraska.

I'm concerned for Nebraska because I have a feeling they're going to have, you know, limitations on being able to irrigate corn and soybeans.

And that's going to maybe be impacting their yields as we get into the summer.

Also, all comes down to weather, you know, are we going to see a hot, dry summer?

Super El Nino still maybe a little bit up in the air, but we're hearing more and more and even the National Weather Service came out and showed that for the month of June, a little bit more on the drier side.

And so, I'm concerned because if we're drier in June and we start to heat up as we get into July, and I do have some weather services are indicating that, and especially more so as we go into August, reproductive stage for soybeans and fill stage for corn.

This market could get ballistic.

[Kohlsdorf] When does the market start worrying or caring about potential drought?

If we do have a dry rest of the month and into June?

[Martin] I would say it would be more as we get further into June, I would say we've got to be into the latter part of June.

June will be more important as to quarterly stocks and final plantings report.

[Kohlsdorf] We were talking about cattle earlier in in the show, and one of the things I wanted to ask you was about that lockout that we heard about with Cargill and the union workers in Colorado.

Is that weighing on the cattle market at all?

[Martin] I think that the situation with the Cargill plant in Fort Morgan, Colorado, when they for a month, they've been trying to negotiate.

And then it fell through.

And Cargill locked the doors on 1800 workers.

I think that sent the algorithm selling.

The market's been heavy along with funds.

And in the meantime, we not only have an end of a month coming up where there may want to be taking some profits, but also June 1st, we see the trading limits go up precipitously on cattle and fats and feeders.

So, the combination of all of it, I think, weighed on the market.

And of course, you know, we've got an outside trading range month going on feeder cattle.

And I think that that then takes us into June.

Usually, June gets a little bit more enthusiastic because of demand.

I think the cutouts headed towards 400 maybe over on the choice.

But we need to see this market stop.

And it's had a precipitous break here.

And I you know, I would have to say once we get into June, I wonder if we won't still test these lows again.

But we came to a 200-day moving average here on actually it was a 200-month moving average, I believe, on August feeders.

So, it might be a spot that we can catch and bounce.

The market's going to get itself into an oversold condition.

And then the burden of proof is going to be when that rally comes, can it carry through or do we once again catch more liquidation in this market.

And June's supposed to be your tightest numbers.

So sometimes you pick a market on tight supplies and bottom on burdensome supplies, because everybody knows the story.

[Kohlsdorf] Okay.

The last thing I want to talk about is fertilizer costs.

We've heard the government talk recently about trying to intervene to get some of those costs down.

But in the meantime, their high is this an issue that we'll see fallout from later?

Because a lot of farmers have already locked in, right.

Or started to apply.

So, are we going to see this play out later in the summer?

[Martin] I think it's going to be something we see as we get into fall, because farmers tend to put fertilizer on in the fall.

Depends, you know, what their situation is.

But they'll put, you know, different fertilizers on in the fall.

Others now, if they're a cattle producer and they have plentiful supply of manure, they might be okay.

But the situation is going to be again, if they can get it booked here this fall, they might be better off than waiting until next year.

I think crude oil is going to go to $200.

And so, I'm very, very bullish crude.

And it's all in how you get there.

But the indicators I'm following are extremely long term bullish.

And that means prices are going higher for inputs.

[Kohlsdorf] 200.

Okay.

You said it.

All right.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Yeah.

Bad for all of us who have to buy gas, right?

That's right.

That's right.

Thanks, Sue, for joining us on Market Plus.

On Market Plus and offering your insight to us.

[Martin] And I promise next time I'll bring cough drops.

[Kohlsdorf] Okay.

All right.

Well, next week, the battle of blueberry growers face after harvest and commodity market analysis with Brad Matthews.

Thanks for joining us and have a great week.