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Off the Record.

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And now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

Welcome to studio C, another busy week on the campaign trail as we count it down until November 3rd.

Maybe you've voted already s you can watch whatever you want, but if you didn't, please stay tuned.

All right let's talk about the recent poll in the US Senate race and the one for governor.

Some interesting numbers.

Based on a survey of likely voters.

The U.S.

Senate rac is now a statistical dead heat between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.

But when registered voters are included in the poll, doctor El-Sayed opens up a seven point lead.

And overall, he has a six point lead with the all important independent voters over in the race for governor.

Democra Jocelyn Benson has a six point lead over Republican John James with likely voters, and that goes to an 11 point lead with registered voters or lead with independents is pegged at 7%.

So the critical question is which one is more important, likely or registered voters?

We all look at likely voters because the key group are the people who are likely to vote.

But ultimately, in terms of trying to get a snapshot of where the electorate is right now, it's a likely voters sample.

Looking at the education levels, there are fewer college graduate voters in Michigan compared to non-college.

So the significance of that tends to favor whom?

That the Democrat gets the college educated, and the Republican is getting those who haven' gotten formal education as much.

That would favor, on paper, Republican candidates.

Absolutely.

Traditionally, there are more older voters who will actually show up to vote than younger voters, and that generally helps Republicans.

But if enough younger voters turn out for the Democrats, the two could balance each other out.

And right now, we're seeing the pattern you'd expect the Democrat are getting the younger folks, the Republicans are getting the older folks.

And if they can get them motivated, then that is a good thing.

Even if, you know, because the margin is wide, even if they lose the older folks by a smaller margin.

Remember, polling data is a snapshot in time an not a predictor of the outcome.

All right.

So Emily, first of all, congratulations on your marriage.

That's Lauren.

I'm sorry.

Did I say Emily?

Breaking lots of news here.

You didn't know that she got married at the same time.

I'm sorry.

Lauren, congratulations.

Thank you so much.

Yes.

So talk to me about these numbers.

Yeah.

I think most of the most of us who have been following this race for a long time have always assumed it would be pretty close.

And I think nothing in this poll really surprised me.

The national trends are showing that it is nationally a good year for Democrats because it's a midterm election cycle.

Republican president in office, high gas prices, economic conditions are not favorable at this moment, bu at the same time, a dual asset is facing some pretty unique headwinds here in Michigan.

Just came off a very contested primary trail, really still trying to convince a lot of voters who supported Haley Stevens in Detroit, the Jewish community that he is a solid candidate for the Democratic Party.

So I think it's one of those situations where, you know, both of these candidates have some pretty significant hurdles to overcome.

And I don't see it, too.

I don't I don't see any candidate just walking away with it by any means.

So, Emily, let's talk about the governor's race.

Your take on those numbers.

Yeah.

I mean, I think that's a lot more typical.

Like that margin in the Benso James race is a lot more typical of how you'd expect to see a Democrat performing sort of in this cycle, in this environment.

With the president's party being, Republican right now.

So it's kind of interesting that Abdul's lagging, that I think that, you know, there's some some interplay there, maybe with, candidate qualities and different, things that voters are looking at.

But I do wonder, it's interesting that you got into the question of, likely voters because someone asked me about this recently, and I do wonder how many people are having a hard time in that Senate Senate race and might vote in the governor's race, but skip that line.

I mean, to me that, you know you can there's a zillion polls.

Some of them apparently are just made up now and not not real.

Yeah.

This one is not one of those, but you can pick any number.

I think to me, the key thin is Benson continues to run ahead of Abdul El-Sayed no matter what poll you're looking at, she's doing better than he is.

And that, to me, is there's a reason why the Democrats seem a little uncomfortable about the U.S.

Senate race.

I don't think they think Abdul El-Sayeds in trouble by any means, but it's definitely not in the bag.

And, by no means is Mike Rogers in a great position either.

I've talked to Republicans who say their internals show it a dead heat or him even down a point or two.

So it's, that race seems to be the one that could go a point in either direction.

Or.

We could get really surprised.

And maybe all these undecided voter decide to go in one direction, which does happen, and maybe one of those candidates wins by a comfortable amount.

I ran for Detroit City Council, and the number of people who said they were going to vote for me, and the number of people who did vote for me is why I'm here today.

So if you're going to go and sur know, it depends how you define losing Tim?

What's your definition of victory?

I'm here.

Right.

So that's a big win.

I noticed.

Along with the recently engaged Miss Emily.

But, but but here's the gracious.

This is turning into a social program.

A lot of big news here.

Zach how long you have been married?

For 25 years.

There you go.

All right.

It's it' hard to meet people these days, but if you're going to survey people, you have to vote.

You have to go with the people who are most likely to vote.

And I think what we saw in the primary is Democrats were far more enthusiastic.

The number of Democrats who cam out was 2 to 1 to Republicans.

So if you're not talking about people who have a propensity to vote, who have indicated they're going to vote, I have to say that that pulls not quite as reliable.

But having said that there were some people who voted in the Democratic primary who probably are not as excited about the nominee as they might have been otherwise.

The Rs are peddling the story that the enthusiasm gap is closing, as things normally do around the end.

You would expect them to say that.

But do they have something going there?

No.

I mean, they can keep telling themselves that.

I've heard the same thing.

I heard a couple of peopl say, boy, the enthusiasm numbers look a lot better no than they did three weeks ago.

I was like, wow, that's funny.

I don't remember you portraying any lack of surety three weeks ago about the situation.

I mean, they are desperate to keep their base engaged.

They cannot have thi turn in to 2008 when John McCain declared, I'm leaving Michigan.

Bye.

And then the floor fell out from the entire ticket, and they ended up with 67 Democrats in the Michigan House of Representatives.

They can't have that happen.

They have to maintai some confidence among the base.

But all the environmental dat looks really, really troubling for the Republicans right now.

And it looks very good for the Democrats.

That does not mean that the Democrats will just run away with everything this Rogers El-Sayed race is a unique situation, but overall, right now, when you've got basically a general sense that Jocelyn Benson is going to not just going to win the governor's race, but maybe by a touchdown or two, that' real trouble for the GOP ticket.

And I'll just say this too in 2024, it was a good year for Republicans.

Elissa Slotkin still won.

And it was a similar situation of of just, you know, both of these candidates working really hard.

And she just edged out a victory.

And, you know, I don't thin it's an unrealistic possibility.

It could go either way.

I think it's a toss up, but, certainly, certainly there are some echoes of 2024 and 2026 because Rogers was coming of a competitive primary as well.

So we had Miss Benson on the bus.

We had Mister Rogers on the bus.

So why did these people bother to review busses around these state?

You know, I think it's an efficient mode of transportation Tim.

But yeah, I mean, I think people are this is the final push.

This is people, appearing in communities that maybe they feel like they need a second touch on.

I think it's, candidates kind of ginning up support.

I think they're trying to make sure that all the people they think are going to turn out at the polls are going to turn out at the polls, turn some of those registered voters into likely voters and, bus is the way to do it.

Well, I think Mis Benson is going into districts where she thinks she might be able to have some coattails.

I thin she'd love to have a majority.

I think we saw a governor who had a trifecta and didn't get as much done as Democrats would like.

If she thinks she's going to get anything done with Republican controlling one of the chambers, that's a fantasy, because I think Whitmer seemed to be more adept at, at politics than Benson.

I think she had more personal connections with lawmakers than Benson probably has.

But the reason you you drive a bus is because it's a rolling billboard, whether you meet somebody or not, they see you going down the highway.

And if it's Michigan, they see you parked on the highway.

So it's it's high visibility.

By the way, you had a great little story.

I almost thought that was the lead out of this stories that the two candidates after the debate, Miss Benson and, Mr.

James actually talked to on another, and I nudged my wife.

Right.

Like humans, like you.

And I know you're my wife I so this is this is news stick.

Keep the camer on.

Somebody get a microphone.

But you found out what they said to one another.

Yeah, they wanted to go and meet, Benson.

Invited, James to go out to lunch, and they started talkin about going to or so I'm told.

My sources say, to a Coney Island somewhere on the West side.

And I'm sure this isn't going to win elections.

But anybody who's watched all these debates by now, and I think I've watched almost a dozen, the thing we're desperate fo is to see that if these people, when they're actually human beings, they're not just machines who keep saying, liar, liar, liar, Trump, Trump, Trump, DSA, DSA that they can get together because after this election is over, they are going to have to break bread or we're going to get screwe with no, no progress anywhere.

I talked to Miss Benson, who she was getting on the bus yesterday.

I said, so what Coney Island are you going to?

And she smiled and she said, I'll tell you after the election.

Thank you.

Good.

Good night Skubick.

Get off the bus.

Okay.

I do want to propose a debate format that will address the major gripe that we've had, that there was too much arguing going on.

Let's try this on for size and see if you'd like it.

Two comfortable chairs lik we're sitting in a living room.

One correspondent in a comfortable chair.

Put them close together.

Did you ever try to argue with somebody getting right in their face?

That makes it more comfortable and put in the middle of the debate.

Those two quick questions which Chuck had on the channel seven debate, was that not interesting?

Did they get your attention, Zach?

Well, which questions are you talking about?

The three, the two and the yes or no?

I like the yes or no answer.

Couple of them couldn't fail to say yes or no on each one, but I thought it was useful.

You know, these debates are tough.

You know, they're they're so consultant driven.

I don't know that changing the posture of this is going to change what happens.

I mean that that first El-Sayed Rogers debate honestly was a complete embarrassment that they've just where it looked lik they were flailing at each other like a couple boxers in the ring.

The second one was just as, in many ways, justice combative based on what they said.

In no way would I call it civil.

But they at least seeme to follow the rules or tried to, so they weren't talking over each other constantly, although there were still some of that.

I just think that the stakes now are so high.

You got a quarter of $1 billion being spent on a race.

I don't, you know, you could, sit them down together at the Coney Island and have the debate there.

And I think they'd still call each other liars.

I think one of the thing that's valuable about debates, and maybe in the current format, maybe also on the one you're describing, is just seeing how people respond to adversity.

Like if you're an elected official, you're going to have things not go your way.

You're going to have to work with people who don't agree with you.

And I thin seeing how you respond to that, how you take it in, how you hit back, I think that's helpful for people trying to like, sort of make the dispositional judgment of whether or not someone should serve them in office.

And we were discussing earlier the public perception, which I think is a great point to hit on, because what the public is seeing, in addition to these very competitive debate and just griping at each other, the constant personal attacks are just all of this money getting spent on ads, mailers, just assaulted, social media.

If you're trying to watch TV after work, and I think there is a point where there's just fatigue and everyone I have talked to in my personal life is ready for this to be over.

They're ready to have their TVs back, from this anger.

There's one more element in my proposed debate.

No rules.

Well, no.

And you know what?

Believe it or not, we have done no rule debates.

The one between Dick DeVos and Jennifer Granholm.

There were no rules at all.

Okay.

And you know what happened?

Reporters asked follow up questions.

See this is this is the key.

This is very hard for the moderators to run the debate and fact check.

But one of these days, Mik Rogers is going to have to prove that El-Sayed is a terrorist because he keeps saying it, but nobody challenges him to back it up.

Because the rules don't allow them to do it.

You have to reporters look at you guy all know that the first question you ask in a debate means squat, right?

It's the follow up question.

Did they answer it?

Did they not?

And none of these debates gave you really the opportunity.

Rick did a little bit, and Chuck did a little bit in the, but more of that, right?

I mean, I think you're asking the we can't even get these candidates on the phone anymore Tim because their consultants don't want them taking chances and doing interviews.

There' I mean, it is not just debates.

It is up and down the ticket.

We can't even get candidates for the state House of Representatives to talk.

You know why?

Because races that used to cost $20,000 are now millions of dollars.

And you have the other party sending trackers around after these people.

They've become so high stakes, that people just don't want to take chances.

They want to minimize risk.

And there's like a 0% chance a candidate would agree to a no rules debate anymore.

But there is something that you lose in that system.

And I 100%.

What if you went to the candidates personally, okay, and said to a Bill Schuette or a Jennifer Granhol or a Governor Whitmer loot it,, let's sit down and just have a conversation.

They call the shots.

Not until the consultants to take a hike.

I'm sorry.

Go ahead.

Oh, I was just going to say you do lose the humanity.

You lose, for a lot of these politicians, what made them charismatic and interesting to voters, which is what people are looking for.

Exactly.

Can I relate to these folks.

They want the authenticity.

The other approach that I think will have the candidates on their best behavior.

And no one was rude to the moderators, so I think we should establish that.

But the town hall format, where you have citizens asking questions because nobody wants to show their backside when Joe Bag of Donuts is sitting there and Sally Housecoat wants to know something.

I mean, this is where when you treat the public like trash, it's over.

Or if you get their mother in an ad to say something bad about them.

But I really think that that that the debates are important because and I'll speak for myself.

But I think this is a common perception when you deal with John James in a scrum, he's a controlled robot.

When you see him in a debate, he can move, he can pivot.

He's good on his feet.

I've seen a different John Jame watching him on TV than I have being three feet away from him.

So there is a value to these debates.

And as Emily said, when that when the bullets start flying, do you get under the table or do you stand on it?

I think there's some value to that.

All right.

Let's take a look at that.

US Senate debate at channel seven down in Motown.

Democratic candidate EL-Saye stayed on his message claiming that his opponent and Donald Trump are raising prices.

And voters out there are paying for it.

And to a degree, Republica Mike Rogers repeated his claim that his opponent is too extreme.

But then he added a new wrinkle.

Last April, after a raucous state Democratic convention in Detroit, Democratic Chair Curtis Hertel said his party would be unite despite some very visible disagreements in segments of the party.

In the debate for the first time, Mr.

Roger tried to exploit that division, hoping to get Democratic votes.

If you started thinking abou Democrats for Rogers and elected officials around the stat saying two extreme can't do it, this is exactly why the bigges coalition we have is Democrats.

For Roger doctor El-Sayed this response.

Every time that they're trying to distract you, they are picking your pocket.

You got a corporate politician who wants to turn around and do corporate things.

And he returned to his complaint that his opponent is all in on the president's agenda.

That's what this campaign is about.

We need to turn.

The page on Donald Trump.

But that means we need to stand up to Donald Trump.

We need to take o the corruption of our politics.

We need money out of politics.

Money in your pocket.

Democrats could argue just because Mr.

Rogers wants some Democrats to vote for him does not mean they will.

In fact, one former state Democratic Party chair has suggested any disgruntled Democrats would just skip over voting in the U.S.

Senate race altogether.

So will the new spin on th Rogers message worked for him, or will the continuation of the anti-Trump economic card work for doctor El-Sayed?

In a race according to one poll, which is right now is a statistical dead heat.

So when he made that statement about getting Democrats for what did you make of that?

I thought it was very surprising when he said biggest coalition.

But I will just note that after the debate, he told reporter he meant to say fastest growing.

I think that that.

Is a difference.

Yeah, well, I mean, I think it's huge.

It's a big difference.

Biggest coalition would imply that it's bigger than Republicans, for example, which I think is unlikely.

So I do think it's very interesting.

The point that he's trying to make is that he is trying to do something that I think Elissa Slotki did somewhat successfully in 24, was lose better in areas that he's obviously not going to get a majority of voter in, like Detroit, for example.

He's trying to make those margins lower, and pull away in a very what's expected to be a very close race.

But I think of Abdul El-Sayed is trying to do this as well with some disaffected Republicans.

This is why he's focusing his message so closely on high gas prices, high cost of living, affordability, health care issues.

And so we'll see who is more successful eating into the other candidates margins.

Well, there's also a big group out there that they haven't announced themselves, but they're Republicans for El-Sayed, and they're Arab American voters who tend to vote Republican, who are going to vote overwhelmingly Democratic.

And when Zach talked about money and politics and what impact it's having, here's what you don't see.

There are lots of consultants in Detroit who are getting very, very wealthy by advising Rogers and trying to suppress the vote in Detroit.

You got Karen Whitsett out there saying, I'm not for El-Sayed.

You have Mary Waters, the At-Large Councilwoman, the top vote getter in Detroit's last election, saying, split your ticket, leave something blank on there.

These people are doing very well, and El-Sayed really needs to get his arms around that.

And the Free Press broke news, and I guess wasn't news that Mayor Mary Sheffield, who get 75% of the vote two years ago, supports El-Sayed, where she's been on the campaign trail.

She is a powerful force in Detroit that needs to be mobilized.

If else El-Sayed is going to try and bring that Detroit vote in which he needs to win.

Well, did she make a big deal of the endorsement?

From what I understan from our reporter, Dana Afana, that she barely stuttered it out when she asked her but.

What his name?

But Emily Lawler tells me he was on the website for quite some time.

This is this is what we call a buried lead in journalism.

But she did not proclaim it.

She did not declare it.

And she knows the value of this because one Mike Duggan endorsed her for mayor.

They had a big event in the neighborhood.

This is something that shoul have been rolled out weeks ago.

It should have bee something else Ed was promoting.

Mary Sheffield should be out there on the stump for him.

She's got some problems in Detroit.

Maybe that's the problem here.

But the bottom line is, if you want to motivate Detroiters, get a Detroiter out front for you.

I think that, Mike Rogers has correctly identified the black vote in Detroit as a weakness for Abdul El-Sayed.

Obviously, that's not a group of people that supported him in large numbers during the primary.

It's not a group of peopl he can count on or has counted on, and particularly the 2018 election.

But he should be obviously using those as part of his coalition.

I think that as he builds that coalition, they're looking more and more like an essential building block.

And Mike Rogers is thinking he can pick some of those voters off.

He opened a campaign office a mile from me, I biked by the other day, and no one was burning the midnight oil, so I'm not sure how active it is.

But.

And then, you know, they're sending out fliers.

I got one to my mailbox, but, you know, gave me a very detailed explanatio of how to vote a straight ticket Democratic ballot, but also pick Mike Rogers.

And I think that they're making some, some attempts.

But also, you know, he opened that office a week ago.

It's pretty late in the game.

I think a lot of people have already voted absentee.

I think it's just fascinating to see a couple things.

First, Abdul El-Saye is having to fight so many fires on the Democratic side of things to consolidate the base.

The situation with the Jewish vote has been talked about at nauseum, but my jaw about hit the floor this week when Gilda Jacobs, long time former legislator, probably agrees with Abdu El-Sayed on almost every issue.

Longtime leader in the progressive liberal movement said she doesn't know if she can vote for him.

I mean, that is shocking.

You know, I know the Democrats would like to say, oh, these are all like fake Democrats who are not voting for Abdul El-Sayed that that is not the case.

There are a lot of legitimat Democrats who just are not sure what to do.

Meanwhile, you have Mike Rogers who is trying, trying, trying to run from Trump now weeks before the election with things like tariffs, you know, trying to put some distance between himself and the president.

And I just wonder, is it too little, too late?

I really thought he was going to do this the day after the primary and move to the middle push Abdul El-Sayed where only he has only the left.

Instead, it felt like, you know, Rogers doubled down on right wing things with the Islamophobia going after Abdul's name.

We still heard things about the 24 election.

I was like, why isn't he moving to th middle and leaving El-Sayed with no oxygen, he's finally doing it, and I don't know if it's too late.

A lot of these issues that we're talking about, I think, stem from the fac that we have an August primary.

I think this absolute slugfest of a Democratic primary, given time, I think a lot of Democratic voters would ultimately be swayed by the Democratic ticket.

Abdul doesn't have time.

He had August to November, and that is not a lot of time to make some of those connections really buil some of those community inroads.

But then at the same time Mike Rogers did not have to deal with the primary.

So he is he is pitching his campaign to Trump voters to rally the base up until August.

But then now he has to pivo that message as well to voters who are very concerned about some of the Trump administration's policy.

So I think for both of them, you're trying to make some turnarounds in a very, very tight window.

Yeah, but the siren that went off went off in April at the Detroit convention.

I remembe standing there talking to Hertel he said, you know, are you going to put Humpty Dumpty back together?

Yeah, yeah, we'll be in.

And I understand what he has to do.

But there was the signal right there.

There's something boiling under.

I mean, I keep thinking like, what if Gary Peters had just run for reelection?

Then retire.

Wed be talking about a blues tsunami about to wash over the state of Michigan.

Instead, we have maybe the most important U.S.

Senate race, the closest U.S.

Senate race in America.

And they just this is the Democratic Party is struggling with this nationally.

And Michigan has becom like the Rorschach test for what the Democratic Party is going to be going forward.

And, you know, this race, I think it's completely up for grabs.

And, th the party is really struggling to get itself aligned.

All right.

Very quickly there's a survey out on con con, the Constitution convention.

You believe how many people have.

Yeah, absolutely.

Know what ideas go in what this is all about, which is rewriting the Constitution.

The numbers look like this is going to go down.

Is, are we reading that right?

First of all, what's con count?

Is that a dance?

Is it some sort of some cocktail nut mix I get at the bar?

Here's why I think people are going to vote against it.

They're like, we're going to let these idiots redo the Constitution.

I don't think anybody has any confidence in the political class right now.

I wouldn't let them write the road rules of the road.

You know.

It's like there was a poll that came out, earlier in the fall in the Detroit News that showed it with a chance not passing with everybody.

And it scared everybody.

And now we see it appears the usual is going to happen.

It will go down in flames.

All right.

Thank you.

Great analysis.

Preciate that.

One more week to go.

See you next week for more of the same.

Thanks for tuning in.

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